Why burndown charts can be misleading for tracking engineering projects

Burndown charts have long been a staple for tracking progress in software development, giving teams a visual snapshot of work left to be done against time remaining. They’re a quick, easy way to see if you’re on track or falling behind. But how valuable are these charts, really? And are they showing the whole picture?

The answer is more nuanced than it seems for engineering leaders overseeing multiple projects. Burndown charts provide a straightforward view of tasks getting completed. Still, they don’t reveal much about the quality of that work, the challenges teams face, or the effort behind each deliverable. So, while they’re a valuable piece of the agile toolkit, relying on them alone to gauge team productivity or project health can lead to an incomplete—sometimes misleading—story.

In this article, we’ll break down the different types of burndown charts, when they’re helpful, and when you might want to think twice before using them. We’ll also explore alternatives that offer a more holistic view of progress so you can see what is getting done and how and why. Because when it comes to complex software projects, context is everything.

What is a burndown chart?

A burndown chart is a graphical representation used in Agile project management to track progress over time. It shows the amount of remaining work against the time left, typically with user stories, tasks, or hours on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. As the project moves forward, the line slopes downward, reflecting the team’s actual progress.

This visual representation is valuable for scrum teams and agile project managers to quickly assess whether a project is on track. If the line flattens, it may indicate a need for corrective actions—addressing scope creep, balancing the burndown rate, or adjusting estimates.

However, while burndown charts provide a clear visual of daily progress, they can sometimes miss potential issues like the quality of work or complex project challenges. For a more complete picture, teams often pair them with burnup charts or use them alongside tools like the user story map and issue count tracking to capture the full scope of their scrum project management efforts.

Types of burndown charts

Burndown charts help agile teams stay on track by visualizing progress and predicting timelines. There are two main types: sprint burndown and release burndown, each serving a distinct purpose for engineering teams.

Sprint burndown chart

Monitoring short-term project goals

The sprint burndown chart is valuable for scrum masters and agile teams. It shows daily progress updates on the remaining work for a sprint (usually 2-4 weeks). By tracking this graphic representation each day, teams can quickly spot potential risks, adjust tasks, and ensure the current sprint is on track to meet its sprint goal.

For example, if a SaaS team is launching a new feature, daily burndown updates can highlight if QA testing is dragging. The team can then prioritize bug fixes or add resources to stay on track and avoid underestimating tasks.

Release burndown chart

Tracking long-term project progress

The release burndown chart provides a high-level project plan of multiple sprints, helping agile development teams see how much work remains until a major release. It tracks project goals, plans future sprints, and keeps everyone on the same page.

For a team working towards a quarterly update, the release burndown highlights whether development is on pace for successful completion. If feature delivery falls behind, leadership can reallocate resources, adjust the project management strategy, or re-prioritize the roadmap to hit the target date.

This adaptive project management methodology ensures teams have a clear view of their project burn-down chart timeline, making it a powerful tool for Scrum Roles and product management teams.

How to create a burndown chart

Creating a burndown chart is a straightforward process that can help agile teams stay on track and visualize their progress. Here’s a quick guide to get started:

Identify the total amount of work to complete

First, list all the tasks, user stories, or backlog items for the sprint or project. Estimate the actual effort required for each task using story points, hours, or another metric your team uses. For example, if a sprint has ten user stories with an average of 5 story points each, your total effort would be 50 story points.

Set up your chart with time on the x-axis and effort on the y-axis

Create a basic line chart using your preferred tool (Excel, Google Sheets, or project management software like Jira). Place time (days or sprints) along the x-axis and the total effort along the y-axis. The ideal burndown line should start at the total effort and decrease steadily to zero by the project’s or sprint’s end.

Plot actual progress daily to track your team’s performance

Each day, update the project timeline with the remaining effort. If you initially estimated 50 story points and completed 10 points by day three, the line should reflect 40 points remaining. Continue to plot this daily, and if you notice a steep drop or plateau, this could signal an issue that requires immediate attention.

Review and adjust as needed.

As the sprint progresses, compare the ideal burndown line to your progress. If the lines diverge significantly, it may be time to reassign tasks, update estimates, or hold a quick retrospective meeting to identify blockers. The goal is to ensure that the work completed matches the planned trajectory by the end of the time window.

Can burndown charts measure developer productivity?

While they’re great at showing task completion, burndown charts ignore aspects of software development like code quality, problem-solving, and team collaboration. Focusing solely on getting tasks done can push developers to cut corners, racking up technical debt and compromising long-term project health.

The reality is that software development is dynamic, with shifting requirements and unexpected challenges. Burndown charts, rigid by design, fail to capture the research, planning, and teamwork that define meaningful progress.

Instead, we need a more nuanced approach to developer productivity—one that values both the how and why behind developers’ actions. Engineering productivity tools should consider quality, creativity, and adaptability, not just task volume. Only then can we get a true measure of developer productivity.

When should you use a burndown chart?

Burndown charts are ideal when you need a quick snapshot of task progress. You can use them to track how much work remains in a short-term sprint. Teams focused on delivery schedules and straightforward task completion will benefit from the visual clarity burndown charts provide. They’re most effective in stable environments where the scope and complexity of work are predictable.

When not to use a burndown chart

However, burndown charts are not suited for complex projects with changing requirements or tasks that evolve in scope. When quality, innovation, or research are priorities, tracking the remaining work creates a misleading picture. Avoid using them when measuring long-term outcomes, team collaboration, or creative problem-solving. In these cases, adopt metrics that value adaptability, quality, and the depth of the team’s contributions.

Alternatives to burndown charts

Burndown charts have their place but only show part of the picture. Here are a few other tools that give a fuller view of productivity:

Developer intelligence platforms: Platforms like DX focus on how smooth and satisfying a developer’s experience is, measuring workflow, tool usability, and team satisfaction.

Kanban boards: Kanban boards are best for ongoing work. They show where tasks get stuck and adapt easily as things change.

Gantt charts: Great for complex projects, Gantt charts map out task dependencies and deadlines to keep track of overlapping work.

Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs): CFDs visualize how work moves through different stages, helping spot bottlenecks and workflow issues.

Why DX Core 4 beats burndown charts

Burndown charts show what’s getting done but miss what really matters—quality, effectiveness, and impact. That’s where the DX Core 4 comes in. It’s a more innovative framework beyond task tracking that measures speed, code health, team satisfaction, and business outcomes. With DX, leaders get an accurate view of productivity that helps teams move faster and build better software.